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Sunday, July 26, 2009

What's the Likely Future for Wang and the Yankees? 

王建民可能在星期一要去見 James Andrews,以決定要如何處理他的肩膀。他過去一年來從腳、臀部到肩膀都出問題,大概只有手肘還沒有事情。

不管是否要開刀,一般的看法是他今年球季大概不太可能再上場了。開刀的話不太可能那麼快復原,不開刀純靠復健剩下來的時間也不太夠了。我們還需要聽聽看 Andrews 的意見,看看情況是不是會出乎意料的樂觀。不過就以目前的資訊來說,王建民現在已經不用想今年該怎麼辦,而是考慮怎麼樣才能讓他的球員生涯延續下去。

除非最樂觀的情況出現,今年球季結束後 Yankees 大概會把他 non-tender,讓他成為自由球員。他目前的薪水是 $5M,如果 Yankees 在十二月 non-tender deadline 之前給他合約,那麼受限於減薪不得超過 20% 的 CBA 條款,他的薪水勢必還要有 $4M。Yankees 或是任何球隊都不會給傷病這麼頻繁的投手 $4M 的合約,所以 non-tender 是個所有 GM 都會做的選擇。除非王建民能夠在九月初歸陣並且回復他在 2006-07 的水準,否則這是最有可能的情況。

這並不代表王建民的 pinstripes 日子已經結束,他仍然可以跟 Yankees 簽約。今年跟他簽約的球隊要幫助他復健,我的猜測是他可能得到小聯盟合約,同時附帶規定如果復健成功回到大聯盟後的薪水是多少。對他和對球隊都合理的做法是類似今年 Andy Pettitte 這種底薪低但是出賽獎金高的合約。

如果走到這一步,現在王跟 Yankees 或其他球隊簽約差異不大,因為 Yankees 在醫療、復健資源上面的投入雖然曾經領先不少大聯盟球隊,不過現在這個優勢已經不再存在。根據 Will Carroll 的說法,倒也不是 Yankees 現在做的不好,而是別人跟上來了。王建民只要考慮一個能讓他及他的家人自在的環境就好,現在當務之急是如何延續球員生涯,而不是在明年的幾萬或幾十萬元上面錙銖必較。

Wang is not going to see Dr. Andrews on Monday. He might see Dr. Andrews sometime next week, but not on Monday. As of 24th of July(US time), Dr. Andrews has not even receive the report.
Well, I took his words for it. I'll change it to a not so definite tone.

New York Times 7/24/2009 David Waldstein "Hughes Has Numbers in Relief, if Not Buzz"

WANG IN DOUBT Chien-Ming Wang said he might go to Alabama on Monday to see Dr. James Andrews, the noted orthopedist. Wang said he was nervous about what Andrews would tell him and acknowledged that surgery could be an option to alleviate the discomfort in his right shoulder. Wang has visited Dr. David Altchek, the Mets’ team physician, and his findings were sent to Andrews for analysis.
Hi, I check with J-Train and he said Dr. Andrews is going to MRI Wang once more despite he has been MRIed twice within a week. Thus Wang is indeed going to fly to Alabama on Monday and have a MRI, but the actual diagnosis is going to be on Tuesday.
Now he needs a shoulder surgery. This is probably going to end his career. Hopefully not that bad.
It is too early to call it a career ending injury.

Is this surgery still necessary if everyone knows for sure his career ends here? I'm not so sure about that.
I didn't mean that the surgery itself is career ending. I'm more concerned about the rehab time, and the prognosis. From what I learned it may take up to one year to rehab, and pitchers who've gone through the surgery is likely to suffer from loss of speed or control. He'll be 31, and Mark Prior had the same injury....

I apologize for not being conservative. But I'm really worried.
I think Yankees will no tender Wang and some MLB clubs will offer him a cheap major league contract with incentives clause. Put it this way, if Carl Pavano was able to get a ML contract after his Yankees year, there is no reason why Wang can't.
Carl Pavano was finally healthy at the end of 2008 season. His performance didn't show any sign of greatness, but the Tribe does not look for greatness when they signed him for $1.5M a year. I don't think Pavano can make a good analogy here.

Regarding to Wang's contractual situation, I think the best case scenario would be Jon Lieber, who was signed by the Yankees after a TJ surgery. Cashman signed him with the knowledge that he would be any contribution in the first year of the two-year contract. However, that signing worked out perfectly well as Cashman planed when Lieber returned in 2004. His 176.2 IP w/ 4.33 ERA performance costs the Yankees only $2.7M, or $3.25M for two years combined, which could be considered as a great bargain from a veteran.

That being said, Lieber had a Tommy John, which is far easier predicted than the one Wang had. I'd guess that there won't be many major league contract offers to Wang.
Let's go for the SWEEEEEEEP!!!!!
I think Yankees did make a statement after sweeping the Red Sox. As Steve Goldman said, if Yankees keep playing at .622 until the end of the season, Sox need to play at .77 to win the AL East.

Even if Yankees play at 25-26 for the rest od the season, Sox still need to play at .635 to win the AL East.

6.5 games ahead with 51 games left is a massive lead.
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