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Thursday, October 16, 2008

This Is Why Postseason Gives You the Best of Baseball 

Terry Francona 不是 Casey Stengel、Tony LaRussa 或是 Earl Weaver,不過他已經算是能夠嘗試新東西的 manager 了。即便如此,在平常的日子我們還是很難看到七局上半沒有人出局,一二壘有人的情況下,任何一個大聯盟 manager 會把自己的 closer 調上火線。

雖然分數仍然守不住,但是這個調度是正確的。這場輸了就沒有明天,在已經落後五分的情況下,再丟分就更不可能追上了。現在不拿出自己最好的投手,今年就不再有機會。這場球如果最後 Red Sox 輸掉,任何人也希望是精銳盡出後,在沒有任何保留的情況下輸掉。

只有在這種時候,我們才能看到 manager 做出各種有意思的調度。

我一直認為今年 AL 還是比 NL 好,不管是最頂尖的球隊相比或是整體聯盟的比較。接下來我看好 AL 的贏家拿下 WS。

PS1. Love that double steal.

PS2. Rays 其實也還是會犯一些菜鳥錯誤,只是他們贏的太多就被忽略了。Big Papi 前一場那隻三壘打就是 Rays 右外野手沒有抓住球場特性的結果。任何一個 Red Sox 甚或是 Yankees 的球迷都知道 Fenway Park 右外野全壘打牆的角度很特別,沒抓好就很可能看球沿著牆一路滾到中外野去,不會像其他球場一樣彈回來。Rays 那場球的右外野手是 Fernando Perez,今年九月才上來大聯盟,這輩子還沒有在 Fenway Park 守過右外野(他九月那三場 Fenway Park 出賽守中外野和左外野),以後他大概永遠不會忘記那個球場除了 Green Monster 外還有這種奇怪的特性。

PS3. Rays 也把 Balfour 和 Wheeler 都推出來了。這兩隊最大的差距在實戰裡看起來是長打能力,賽前評估差最多的其實是 bullpen。Rays 的 bullpen 深度要比 Red Sox 好的多。他們雖然沒有 Papelbon,但是整體來講還是較優。這場球不管最後勝負如何,球賽最後幾局雙方毫無保留是最精彩的地方。

PS4. Red Sox 兩個傷兵各打出一隻全壘打,1-run game。這是我不買運動彩券的原因,除非常常買,否則單一的比賽要靠數據和資訊判斷結果實在太難了。要贏錢必須要靠大數法則的幫忙,要在今天賽前預估到 Matsuzaka 會被打出三隻全壘打丟五分,或是 Kazmir 六局兩安打無失分(猜這個還算合理),或者 Big Papi 和 J.D. Drew 在一整個 ALCS 低潮到最後關頭才爆發,Maddon 手上三個左投一個都不拿出來對付這兩個人?當然會有人猜到,不過這種人大概是一向喜歡跟機率作對,遲早要還回去的。

PS5. Maddon 忘了手上那幾個左投可以用了嗎?

haha, you gotta be kidding me. Comeback from 7 deficit? But it did happen. Hope Papi and other guys can wake up from the nightmares and make another big comeback.

Hope i can see Red Sox vs. Phillies.

Still believe lefty can be against the left-hand hitters?
6-run lead seems to give Joe Maddon too much comfortable margin. After Pedroia's 2-out RIB, to keep shaky Balfour in the game for Ortiz gave Sox a breathing room. In my opinion, that's how disaster started. Manager's "desperation" decided this game. As a Yankees fan to watch Red Sox's magic comeback time after time, I finally realize how these anti-Yankees felt in the past years.
I'm not too big on having a southpaw to face a left-handed bat. I'd rather look at the splits along with some scouting reports telling me how comfortable such a hitter is facing a left-handed pitcher. Handedness alone does not and should not dictate the results.

That being said, we know Big Papi is vulnerable hitting southpaws this year (.221/.308/.433 vs. .279/.389/.532), and he does not hit well against lefties in his whole career (.268/.342/.490 vs. .295/.398/.581), at least in his own standard. Unless you believe he's so deep into his slump that there's no way he can get out of it even in an at bat, I'd take extra care of him in the late innings.

Lefties do not perform better than right-handed pitchers against J.D. Drew, but they do take some power away from him, and that's something to think about in the late innings. By the time Howell faces Drew in the 9th inning, the righty-lefty choice does not matter because Drew only needed a single to drive in the winning run, and his BA/OBP splits this year do not show much difference.

You can bet on the career splits, but I'd rather put my best pitcher left on the mound. Eventually that pitcher will be Price, but at this moment Howell is not a bad or wrong choice. Red Sox just beat Rays, plain and simple.

If they can win in this kind of fashion, I don't mind seeing the Sox in the World Series again.
Ok got your point.

So base on the stat Maddon should have sent Howell to face Papi in the 7 inning rather than kept Balfour in the field. If Howell did get Papi out and then Maddon can get Wheeler in the 8 inning to face Youkills, Jason Bay, and JD Drew even Drew is the left-hand hitter.

um, it could have been much better, tho.
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