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Saturday, June 21, 2008


Yankees Are Down But Not Out, Yet! 


王建民大概在九月之前不可能歸隊。就算他能用最短的八週時間恢復,加上復健比賽也要等到九月初才能回來。九月中是比較合理的估計,如果 Yankees 在八月的時候競爭無望,王可能會被直接 shut down,今年球季不要求他回來。

王建民過去兩年的 WARP1 都是7.1,如果接下來他都有這樣的水準,Yankees 使用一個 replacement player 大概會少掉三到四勝。不過他受傷的時間點對 Yankees 還算幸運,最近賽程輕鬆,打線的火力又逐漸升溫,而且 Joba Chamberlain 慢慢的成長為一個真正的先發投手,不再受到各種 pitch count 的限制。這段賽程結束後 Ian Kennedy 差不多也該回來了。我對他的期望雖然不深,不過他也不是上 DL 前的成績所顯示的那麼差的投手,他應該要是個稱職的四、五號投手才對。再過一陣子 Phil Hughes 也該回來,這兩個年輕人的能力比他們在球季開始時的表現出來的成績要好,應該可以提供超過 replacement level 的貢獻。換句話說,失去王建民的損失可能只有兩場球左右,或許這個數字還要加一或減一。

Yankees 今年進不進的了季後賽還在未定之天,不過他們沒有需要為了失去王建民而緊張,也不需要在這個時間點犧牲過多新秀去換 Bedard 或 Sabathia 回來。時間是在他們這一邊的,他們可以等一等再做決定。

Randolph Was Not Treated With Respect He Deserves

叫人飛到西岸去,然後跟上去把他開除掉?Willie Randolph 不是 Casey Stengel,他甚至不是 Joe Torre,不過目前 Mets 的情況如果需要什麼人來負責,那應該是 Minaya,不是 Randolph。Omar Minaya 只是找個替罪羔羊,來掩飾他自己的錯誤而已。Fred Wilpon 和 Jeff Wilpon 在整個事件中也沒有扮演好老闆應該扮演的角色,如果你是 Yankee fan,對於 Hank 覺得很感冒,你應該慶幸 George Steinbrenner 還有 Hal 這個兒子,腦袋看來還算清楚,而且 Hank 怎麼樣也還不是 Jeff。

謹此聲援 Yankees 的老隊長 Willie Randolph,他被開除並不為過,但是他被開除的過程對任何人來講都不公平。Mets 沒有給他應得的尊重。

Steinbrenner Philosophy

我向來利用零碎時間,譬如說吃飯、等車這些時候看影集。最近在重看小時候看過的 Remington Steele,裡面有一句當年一定不知所以然的對白:

I subscribe to the George Steinbrenner philosophy of life. If you want a piece of talent, you buy it.

這句話出自第一季的第二集,第一次播出是 10/8/1982,離 George Steinbrenner 成為 Yankees 老闆還不到十年。光陰似箭,不過看來 George Steinbrenner 幾十年都沒變。

現在不由他當家,Hank 也許跟他有些像(不過 Hank 還會道歉,George 可是不可能在球員像 Mike Mussina 那樣酸他之後還會承認自己錯誤的,他也許會雇個私家偵探跟在 Mike 後面看他有沒有違反合約的情況發生),Hal 更是看起來完全不像他。雖然最近在王建民受傷之後,從 Tyler Kepner 開始所有人都在討論 Yankees 應該會交易什麼大投手進來,我的猜測是這些討論最後都沒有意義。現在這些大投手都太貴,等到七月底的時候就要看看市場如何,到底今年是買方還是賣方市場,才知道價錢若干。雖然這不是完全競爭市場,但是價格還是由買賣雙方決定的。現在出手只有被別人敲竹槓而已。

之前提過,我對 C.C. Sabathia 一直印象不太好,主要的原因是這場比賽。雖然他是很好的投手,但是我對於看他穿上 pinstripes 一直不期不待。這是我的偏見,人總是有偏見的不是嗎?


Erik Bedard 更是一個冒險的選擇。如果他是你自己從小聯盟培養的,恭喜你可以便宜用他幾年。如果要給他一個長約,那麼要看他投完這個約恐怕不是一件容易事情。Carl Pavano 殷鑑不遠,Yankees 最好不要冒險。

還有些什麼名字?

Randy Wolf? Thanks, but no thanks.
Shawn Chacon? Been there, done that.
Paul Byrd? What's wrong with Sir Sidney, I'd rather use him.
Derek Lowe? That actually makes some sense, but, are the Dodgers that desperate?

看來看去,還是在球團內部先找找看能不能找到解答再說。

Comments:
7月13號, 2003, 22歲的Sabathia在兩人出局, 滿壘滿球數的情況下對Giambi用windup投球。

So? He was only 22. 為什麼一個球員不能犯一個在他差不多年紀的球會犯的錯?

五年了這種偏見really is something.
 
我比較好奇的是,吉洋比今年結束後還會不會待在洋基,剛發表的most overrated voting, 他才應該排前兩名,而不是jeter.
 
說實話對於今年球季我是比較悲觀的...縱然Yankees可以進得了季後賽,我也不覺得他們贏得了什麼...所以我比較關心的反而是在明年好幾個大約到期之後,Yankees會怎麼去安排整個隊伍,Abreu和Big G都還有一定的身手,尤其是Big G,如果他願意接受便宜得多的價錢,我還滿想看到他繼續穿條紋制服的(除非真的簽到鐵爺XD)...投手方面明年會有非常多的選擇,一堆大約差不多可以上來的新秀,甚至Mussina和Pettitte都還有可能再投下去...
 
The reason I dislike C.C. Sabathia is not that simple.

He made a mistake when he was young. That's fine by me. However, it's the process made me sick to my stomach. The sequence of that Giambi at bat was

Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Strike(foul), Ball, Foul, Foul, Single

After the count was full, Jeter had a huge head start every time. One can be careless because of his inexperience, but that's not an excuse after you've seen what would happen again, and again.

That says something about the pitcher's personality or makeup, whatever it is not usually measured by the 20-80 scale.

And for God's sake, he's a lefty. He saw what's coming.
 
Everybody run if it's 2 outs, full count. Jeter would have run if Sabathia pitch from the set.

Plus it's just a regular season game.

I understand makeup is hard to measure. But I thought makeup is the most likely quality that can be improve as one ages.

I watched Kobe Bryant threw 3 airballs from outside of 3 point line when Lakers played Jazz in Kobe's first postseason appearence. Does it tell us Kobe should be doomed for the rest of his life?
 
During that at bat, Sabathia didn't even try to keep Jeter honest. I still remember seeing that huge lead and the early jump on TV. If I were a Tribe fan, I'd scream to my TV like crazy.

After the game, Jeter was asked if he can recall the last time he scored from first base on a single, and he said: "I have no idea. Little League, maybe."

By the time Sabathia delivered his pitch, Jeter was at second base already each time. If it was Pettitte on the mound, Jeter would be picked off before Giambi can get a hit. Few pitchers can pick off a runner like Pettitte, I have to admit that though.

I hate the approach, not the outcome. I think a great player should pay attention to all the details of the game, not just to use his talents to dominate it all. As good as Sabathia is, he does not fit that bill. For the same reason I did not really feel sorry to see Alfonso Soriano go because he has a similar problem. You'd think players mature as they age, but usually they are just their old self.
 
Sabathia hasn't pitched from the windup with runners on since.

http://tinyurl.com/4ee5rc

I don't know if it's a figure of speech. But if that's true, I guess he really became a mature player.

Only few teams have big budgets and yankees haven't got a legitimate power pitcher since 2003. Is yankees ready for C.C. Sabathia?
 
do you mean a legitimate power pitcher or a legitimate "lefty" power pitcher?

Joba could very well be a power pitcher, judging from his last 5 appearance.

For the front office, I think whether or not to go for CC will depend on their plan for next year. If they got Joba, Wang, and Pettite leading the rotation, I think they'll probably spend more money on other positions like 1B, OF and bullpen.
 
Omar 還算 ok 吧?如果連他都不算稱職的 GM,那整個 ML 的 GM 差不多都要被批個精光了...

我不像國外 Bloggers 一樣把他批的體無完膚,至少滿分一百分我會給他 65 分,他本來就是個 "還算ok" 的 GM,真要說哪裡有不好的地方,那也得回朔到 Expos 時期。

如果不是 Duaner Sanchez 衰小在 06 年發生車禍,現在 Mets 也不會落得連 NLCS 都摸不著...
 
Richie Sexson? ok I give up on the season. and lost most of my faith in Brian Cashman.
 
Thinking about a tryout that costs you only two and half month minimum salary and a temporary spot, it sounds reasonable. It's a different story if we see a everyday player.
 
Signing Richie Sexson is a low-cost low-risk move for the Yankees. Brian Cashman did a great job here.
 
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