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Saturday, December 16, 2006

Players Say We Don't Get It 

球員對於棒球作家或球迷的批評不滿意時,他們常常會用『你們沒有打過這種等級的比賽,不會懂得其中的奧妙之處』來反駁。我不記得 Damon 說過類似的話,最近一次給我比較強烈印象的是 Randy Johnson,不過無論如何我們看看 Damon 對於 Mientkiewicz 的談法。下面這一段是直接引用 New York Times 的 Tyler Kepner 在 12/15/06 這篇 "Damon Has Few Regrets as Red Sox Spend Big Again" 所報導的 Damon 發言:

"There’s not too many first basemen who could save two or three runs a game, but I got to see Doug do it, and it’s amazing," said Damon, who won the World Series with Mientkiewicz for the Red Sox in 2004.

"He’s a contact hitter with the right work ethic and the right people pushing him. He could produce for us. But defensively, I haven’t seen a better player than Doug. If we picked him up, it would be great."

Doug Mientkiewicz 的棒子不適合當一壘手。他去年的成績是:.283/.359/.411,而 AL 的一壘手平均成績是 .280/.352/.467,他的 AVG 和 OBP 在平均水準,但是 SLG 實在差太多。我不是要評論 Mientkiewicz 是不是個好打者,所以我們就此打住。

請看 Damon 說得第一句話 "...save two or three runs a game"。

很抱歉,這是不可能的。如果我們比較的是把一壘放一個等身大人型紙牌,然後在所有需要傳一壘的動作由二壘手、投手甚或捕手補位 (大概跑這麼快的捕手還沒有出生,但是我們總不能讓球員從 dugout 裡面出來補位),那麼在這樣的比較基礎之下大概是可以省兩三分,甚至更多。

哪一個 manager 會放個紙牌上場當一壘手?Torre 放 Giambi 或是 Francona 放 Ortiz 在那個位置已經很接近這個觀念了,不過離放個紙牌還有很遠的距離。歷史上沒有任何一個防守一壘手可以有 320 FRAR 的成績,將來也永遠不會有。

有些東西的確是局外人不能夠真正了解的,不過對於球員場上表現,常常不能真正了解的是球員而不是 stathead。


關於 Matsuzaka 我在前面的 comments 裡面有一些討論,最近事忙,也許等到兩隊的 rotation 都真正成型了之後再來詳細討論。我目前的看法是這是 Theo Epstein 的大勝利,他從 Boras 那邊把 J.D. Drew 那個合約虧掉的全部找回來了。

另外對於 Melky Cabrera 換 Mike Gonzalez 這個傳言我樂觀其成。Cabrera 也許還有可能長出 power 來,但是以 Yankees 的隊型來看,他不會有足夠的上場時間,所以他不會在 Yankees 得到成長的機會。更不要提如果他們最後還是錯誤的留下 Bernie 一年讓他巡迴告別,Cabrera 的表現機會會被壓縮的更厲害。Brett Gardner 可能明星賽後或是九月就可以上來,他是另外一個 Melky Cabrera,而且應該真的可以守中外野,所以 Yankees 並沒有需要把 Melky Cabrera 留在手上。如果上半球季有人受傷,Kevin Thompson 也可以擔任第四號外野手。2006 年 Yankees 不只是第四號外野手,他們甚至需要第五號每天出場,當 Damon 需要休息時連第六號都用上了。這種情況不是每年都會發生的,我們知道目前這幾個外野手年紀都不輕,都需要休息,但是像去年的 Matsui 和 Sheffield 一樣必須長期缺陣的可能性並不大。趁著 Melky Cabrera 還有不錯的交易價值時把他送出去不是壞主意,只要換回來的有價值就行。

Come on, are you serious?

When people say "...save two or three runs a game", they do NOT mean the player really saves two or three runs a game. They just mean that player has good defensive skill.

Do you really think "...have done it million times" means someone really does something 1,000,000 times?
Well, it's a interesting debate.

Melky's value compare to Mike Gonzlaez is hard to judge, from the Yankee's prespective it's probably worthwhile but not a no-brainer, but from the Pirate's perspective if they are going to trade away a closer that's still 3 years away from FA i would think they should want something a little more sure-fired than Melky Cabrera. they already have plenty of light hitting guys, while Melky's OBP would do them good. if i were the Pirates i would certainly wait till a can't miss deal comes along

Of course, this is the Pirates, they reportedly turned down Ryan Howard for Kris Benson in 04 thinking they would get David Wright... meh.
When people say a million times or a gazillion times, you know that's exaggeration.

If one says a player saves tons of runs a game or a season, that's a metaphor.

When you use a "reasonable" number like 2 or 3 runs, it's less so exaggerating than telling the "truth", albeit still out of line for a stathead.

You know how many people would buy into that number, definitely more than you would believe.
This is weblog written by a Yankee fan, so it's a sure thing that I will take the Yankees' side when it comes to wishful thinking.

For all the injury risks Gonzalez have, I'd still say the trade is a go if they only have to throw in another marginal prospect. A straight-up is even better. I don't know what kind of a player Cabrera will be, but he doesn't have a chance with the Yankees because he won't get enough playing time. Same thing happened to Wily Mo Pena long ago.
On the other hand, if Melky Cabrera improves along the average margine of age and Bobby Abreu's power continue to go south at it's current pace, Melky in 08 would already be fairly close to the production of Abreu... for 15 million less...
I agree that from a realistic point of view this trade does make sense for the Yankees (though it doesn't make enough sense for the Pirates, and given Littlefields track record of unwillingness to pull the trigger until he has abosalutely no choice left, it probably won't happen)

And again, if they want to trade Gonzalez, they should try to find someone that fit their needs better.
I think the chance that Cabrera could out-perform Abreu in 2 years is still very slim. The problem is that we will never know the answer if Cabrera stays a Yankee. Young players cannot sit on the bench to polish themselves. They need to play.

I'd rather see Cabrera blossom somewhere else than rotting on the Yankees' bench. If he becomes a great player, I'm fine with that. Chances are he'll be another Ledee or Spencer.

The Yankees have to say goodbye to Mariano Rivera some day. This super-natural human being has said he wants to pitch in the new Yankee Stadium and I have no doubt he can do that, but he's not going to stay a dominant closer well into his 40s. How often did a team replace a HOF'er by another HOF'er at the same position? Joe D and Mickey for one, but we don't see that often. The only chance that the Yankees can survive the post-Mo days is to pile up cheap and young talents in the bullpen. Trading for Gonzalez is not a bad idea.

That being said, there's one thing I don't like in Mike Gonzalez, his walk rate does not intrigue me.

What can we complain? If he cut his walk rate down to 2.5 (half of his 2006 number), he's pretty much a B.J. Ryan now and there's no way a Cabrera can get him.
Good point i suppose, it depends on the big picture i suppose.

Gonzalez also had to be shut down last September with elbow problems, sounds like a very dangerous player to put into Torre's "care" ;)
heh, replacement level blog ran a comparason analysis baseball refrence style on Melky, the comparasons are highly interesting

Gregg Jefferies 1989 (868)
Luis Rivas 2001 (861)
Adrian Beltre 2000 (844)
Wil Cordero (829)
Alan Trammel 1979 (823)
Harold Baines 1980 (821)
Mike Caruso 1998 (818)
Gary Sheffield 1990 (818)
Ivan Rodriguez 1993 (811)
Ozzie Guillen 1985 (804)

a very very mixed bag if there ever was one, we have a few hall of famers, a few very good players, a few decent guys, and a few utterly bad once.
我始終認為Melky for M. Gonzalez的交易應該是划算的,前提是Gonzalez健康且不需要增加太多籌碼,對於Melky留在洋基很可能反而是折損掉他的發展潛力這一點我也很贊成CCLU大的想法,不過這兩天看了一些英文部落格,有人提到,以NYY現在老邁的外野手(與DH)群所需的休息(或受傷),以及在比賽後段接替防守或代跑等用途來說,Melky的上場機會很可能比我原本想像的多很多...期待Melky能夠持續有好表現(甚至更好,他建立了CF的防守能力),似乎並不是不可能的,也許到了明年球季中時他的交易價值會比現在更好也不一定?
I Heart Mike Gonzalez.

If I were the Yankees, I wouldn't trade Melky Cabrera for him though. A legitimately decent defensive corner OF with good speed and decent OBP skills is more important to the Yanks than a lefty reliever.

Mariano Rivera can come out of the pen earlier to pitch to a lefty if need be anyway. And you still have Mike Myers.
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