Tuesday, November 21, 2006
BBWAA Lost It
Ryan Howard 打敗 Albert Pujols 拿到 NL MVP 時我只認為他們沒有做出好選擇。Howard 拿獎只是顯示出傳統數據跟現代棒球統計的差距。
Howard: .313/.425/.659
Pujols: .331/.431/.671
Pujols 全勝。我們不在乎誰打的全壘打較多，SLG 是更全面的長打數據，多打幾隻二壘打可以彌補，但是全壘打是 Howard 領先 Pujols 的項目之一 (58 vs. 49)。Howard 另外一個領先的項目是 RBI (149 vs.137)，這也可能是他獲勝的原因。不過我們看看他們的 RBI 是怎麼來的：
Howard: 12.3%/19.6%/32.1%/0.17878
Pujols: 11.4%/27.3%/38.8%/0.20609
這幾組數據分別是打者把一壘上跑者打回來的機率，把二壘上跑者打回來的機率，以及打回三壘跑者的機率。最後一組數據是把什麼比例的壘上跑者打回來。Pujols 打回來的壘上跑者比 Howard 多 3%，他事實上表現比 Howard 更有效率。之所以 Howard 會多 12 RBI 的重要原因是他打擊時壘上跑者人數一共是 358 人，Pujols 打擊時只看到 301 個跑者。
比例式的數據以 Pujols 為優，所以全壘打和 RBI 雖然是 Howard 高，但是我們也可以找到支持 Pujols 的理由。我們還是可以找到一點對 Howard 有利：Pujols 因為季初受傷少了 70 PA，兩個人的 PA 分別是 634 和 704。這是一個判定 Pujols 貢獻不如 Howard 的可能，投手難以得到 MVP 的主要原因就是他們在場上的時間較少，貢獻不如每天上場的選手。
在這種情況下，我們需要一些比較先進的 sabermetrics 去評估他們的實際整體貢獻。Pujols 雖然 PA 較少，但是在平均每個 PA 表現較優的情況下，他的 VORP 以 85.4 超過 Howard 的 81.5。加上 Pujols 和 Howard 同位置，而 Pujols 是較佳的防守球員來看 (FRAR 25 vs. -5, Howard 的防守低於 replacement level, 30 分的差距大約是三勝)，Pujols 的 WARP1 跟 Howard 相比是 11.9 vs. 8.6。
BBWAA 在 NL MVP 的選擇上可以更好，不過這個結果還不算太難接受。
AL MVP Choice is Even Worse
人生就是如此。當你對某些事情不滿，搖搖頭以為笑一笑過去了就是嶄新的一天時，接下來的或許是燦爛的陽光，但也很可能是一場大雷雨，彷彿老天爺直接甩你一個耳光。
Justin Morneau 拿到 MVP 不是出乎預料的事情，在球季快要結束時有不少專欄作家談到這件事情。但是當結果出來真的是他拿到後，我的反應仍然是：
Are you [beep] kidding me?
我們先看看 Baseball Prospectus 的 Internet Baseball Award，這是 BP 每年都有的活動，算是一般對於 sabermetrics 有興趣，但是並非以棒球作家為主體的票選。AL MVP 前六名分別是：
1. Derek Jeter, 1298/13365
2. Joe Mauer, 1204/10644
3. Johan Santana, 1113/9706
4. David Ortiz, 1149/7630
5. Travis Hafner, 1000/6597
6. Justin Morneau, 936/6207
他們的投票規則跟 BBWAA 是一樣的，名字後面的兩個數據分別是票數（名字出現在多少張選票上）以及積分（跟 MVP 記點方式相同）。Howard 和 Pujols 這兩個選擇是可以討論的，在同一個 BP 的選舉中他們的成績分別是：
1. Albert Pujols, 1199/14663
2. Ryan Howard, 1170/11131
如果 Joe Mauer 拿到這個獎我還覺得有意義一些，他以捕手身分拿下 batting title 本身就很特殊，那是在防守上最重要也最困難的位置，通常在打擊上大家的期望並不大。Justin Morneau 這個選擇就太離譜了。我們把 Jeter 的成績跟 Morneau 放在一起看：
Derek Jeter: .343/.417/.483
Justin Morneau: .321/.375/.559
Morneau 的 power number 比 Jeter 好不少，但是 Jeter 的 OBP 也比 Morneau 高不少。在沒有做位置調整之前，Morneau 的數據稍優，不過沒有高太多。許多討論 OPS 的研究都指出 OBP 的重要性比 SLG 大，在以 OPS 這樣的簡單數據討論攻擊貢獻時，OBP 應該給予較 SLG 更大的權重。如果把 SLG 的權重固定為 1，OBP 的權重從 1.4 (Rob Neyer's adjusted OPS) 到 3 (Paul DePodesta used when he was with the A's) 各種看法都有。
在考慮位置後，Jeter 就很明顯的領先了。他是游擊手，而 Justin Morneau 是一壘手。今年 AL 這兩個位置的平均表現是：
SS: .280/.333/.412
1B: .280/.352/.467
我們還沒有提今年的 Yankee Stadium 比 Metrodome 更偏向投手，不過這一點沒有太大意義，因為這兩個人都在家裡表現比較好，尤其是 Jeter，表現比作客時好很多。
把這幾點綜合起來，也就不難理解為何 Jeter 的 VORP 是 80.5 而 Morneau 是 52.0，分居 AL 的第一和第十三。把防守放進來也幫不上 Morneau 的忙，我們不提那個沒什麼意義的金手套，就以 FRAR 來看，Jeter 是 30，Morneau 是 16。整體來看 Jeter 的 WARP1 是 9.8，Morneau 是 7.3，差 2.5 場。差個半場一場還可以有主觀看法介入的空間，畢竟這些統計都不是完美的。差到 2.5 場其實應該沒有什麼討論的空間了。
繼 1999 之後，Jeter 再度跟 MVP 擦身而過，在 stathead 的眼中今年應該是他第二次拿到 MVP 而不是至今一次都沒有。Bill James 曾經討論過 east coast bias，他認為沒有這種東西的存在。今年幫他的研究又增加了一個支持他的論證的樣本點。
BBWAA，或者說代表 BBWAA 投票的這些棒球作家們，今年並沒有做好他們的工作。
Comments:
BALTIMORE
Thom Loverro, Washington Times
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Dye
6. Suzuki
7. Hafner
8. Guerrero
9. Santana
10. Verlander
Mel Antonen, USA Today
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Mauer
4. Thomas
5. Dye
6. Ortiz
7. Thome
8. Guerrero
9. Hafner
10. Glaus
BOSTON
Sean McAdam, Providence Journal
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Thomas
6. Dye
7. Guerrero
8. Hafner
9. Sizemore
10. Santana
Dave Heuschkel, Hartford Courant
1. Jeter
2. Ortiz
3. Morneau
4. Thomas
5. Damon
6. Santana
7. Dye
8. Mauer
9. Guerrero
10. Guillen
NEW YORK
Bob Klapisch, Bergen Record
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Santana
4. Dye
5. Thomas
6. Mauer
7. Ortiz
8. Ordonez
9. M. Rivera
10. Hafner
Ed Price, Newark Star Ledger
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Thomas
6. Dye
7. Sizemore
8. Hafner
9. V. Wells
10. Guillen
TAMPA BAY
Marc Topkin, St. Petersburg Times
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Ortiz
4. Dye
5. Guillen
6. Thomas
7. Mauer
8. Sizemore
9. Suzuki
10. Santana
Eduardo Encina, St. Petersburg Times
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Santana
4. Ortiz
5. Thomas
6. Dye
7. Mauer
8. Hafner
9. Wang
10. Damon
TORONTO
Larry Millson, Toronto Globe and Mail
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Dye
6. Hafner
7. Guillen
8. Santana
9. Tejada
10. V. Wells
Allan Ryan, Toronto Star
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Thomas
5. Santana
6. Hafner
7. Dye
8. A. Rodriguez
9. Guerrero
10. M. Ramirez
CHICAGO
Mark Gonzales, Chicago Tribune
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Dye
4. Mauer
5. Ortiz
6, Thomas
7. Thome
8. Hafner
9. Crawford
10. Sizemore
Joe Cowley, Chicago Sun Times
1. Morneau
2. Dye
3. Santana
4. Thomas
5. Ortiz
6. Jeter
7. Guerrero
8. A. Rodriguez
9. Hafner
10. Pierzynski
CLEVELAND
Jim Ingraham, News Herald
1. Jeter
2. Hafner
3. Ortiz
4. Morneau
5. Sizemore
6. Thomas
7. Mauer
8. Dye
9. Guillen
10. Nathan
Sheldon Ocker, Akron Beacon Journal
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Ortiz
4. Santana
5. Verlander
6. Dye
7. Thomas
8. Konerko
9. Guerrero
10. Hafner
DETROIT
Danny Knobler, Booth Newspapers
1. Morneau
2. Thomas
3. Mauer
4. Jeter
5. Ortiz
6. Giambi
7. Santana
8. Guillen
9. Dye
10. Sizemore
John Lowe, Detroit Free Press
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Thomas
4. Ortiz
5. Dye
6. Nathan
7. Santana
8. Mauer
9. Rogers
10. Sizemore
KANSAS CITY
David Boyce, Kansas City Star
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Thomas
4. Dye
5. Santana
6. Ortiz
7. Hafner
8. Guerreo
9. Mauer
10. A. Rodriguez
Bob Dutton, Kansas City Star
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Ortiz
4. Thomas
5. Santana
6. Mauer
7. Dye
8. Cano
9. Tejada
10. Ibanez
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL
Joe Christensen, Minneapolis Star Tribune
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Thomas
4. Ortiz
5. Mauer
6. Dye
7. Hafner
8. Guillen
9. Giambi
10. Santana
Jason Williams, St. Paul Pioneer Press
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Dye
4. Thomas
5. Ortiz
6. Thome
7. Santana
8. Guerrero
9. Hafner
10. Mauer
LOS ANGELES
Matt Hurst, Riverside Press Enterprise
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Thomas
6. Santana
7. Dye
8. Guillen
9. Guerrero
10. Sizemore
Doug Padilla, L.A. News Group
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Mauer
4. Ortiz
5. Thomas
6. Santana
7. Guillen
8. Dye
9. Guerrero
10. Hafner
OAKLAND
Susan Slusser, San Francisco Chronicle
1. Jeter
2. Thomas
3. Santana
4. Morneau
5. Ortiz
6. Dye
7. Mauer
8. Hafner
9. M. Ramirez
10. Sizemore
Joe Roderick, Contra Costa Times
1. Jeter
2. Thomas
3. Morneau
4. Dye
5. Ortiz
6. Guerrero
7. Thome
8. M. Ramirez
9. Guillen
10. Tejada
SEATTLE
Larry Stone, Seattle Times
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Thomas
5. Dye
6. Guerrero
7. Hafner
8. Mauer
9. Giambi
10. Guillen
John Hickey, Seattle Post Intelligencer
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Thomas
4. Ortiz
5. A. Rodriguez
6. Dye
7. Guillen
8. Ibanez
9. Guerrero
10. Sizemore
TEXAS
Kat O'Brien, Fort Worth Star Telegram
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Santana
4. Dye
5. Ortiz
6. Thomas
7. Guerrero
8. Hafner
9. Mauer
10. Matthews
Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News
1. Santana
2. Jeter
3. Morneau
4. Dye
5. Thomas
6. Ortiz
7. Mauer
8. Guerrero
9. Sizemore
10. Young
Thom Loverro, Washington Times
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Dye
6. Suzuki
7. Hafner
8. Guerrero
9. Santana
10. Verlander
Mel Antonen, USA Today
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Mauer
4. Thomas
5. Dye
6. Ortiz
7. Thome
8. Guerrero
9. Hafner
10. Glaus
BOSTON
Sean McAdam, Providence Journal
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Thomas
6. Dye
7. Guerrero
8. Hafner
9. Sizemore
10. Santana
Dave Heuschkel, Hartford Courant
1. Jeter
2. Ortiz
3. Morneau
4. Thomas
5. Damon
6. Santana
7. Dye
8. Mauer
9. Guerrero
10. Guillen
NEW YORK
Bob Klapisch, Bergen Record
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Santana
4. Dye
5. Thomas
6. Mauer
7. Ortiz
8. Ordonez
9. M. Rivera
10. Hafner
Ed Price, Newark Star Ledger
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Thomas
6. Dye
7. Sizemore
8. Hafner
9. V. Wells
10. Guillen
TAMPA BAY
Marc Topkin, St. Petersburg Times
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Ortiz
4. Dye
5. Guillen
6. Thomas
7. Mauer
8. Sizemore
9. Suzuki
10. Santana
Eduardo Encina, St. Petersburg Times
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Santana
4. Ortiz
5. Thomas
6. Dye
7. Mauer
8. Hafner
9. Wang
10. Damon
TORONTO
Larry Millson, Toronto Globe and Mail
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Dye
6. Hafner
7. Guillen
8. Santana
9. Tejada
10. V. Wells
Allan Ryan, Toronto Star
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Thomas
5. Santana
6. Hafner
7. Dye
8. A. Rodriguez
9. Guerrero
10. M. Ramirez
CHICAGO
Mark Gonzales, Chicago Tribune
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Dye
4. Mauer
5. Ortiz
6, Thomas
7. Thome
8. Hafner
9. Crawford
10. Sizemore
Joe Cowley, Chicago Sun Times
1. Morneau
2. Dye
3. Santana
4. Thomas
5. Ortiz
6. Jeter
7. Guerrero
8. A. Rodriguez
9. Hafner
10. Pierzynski
CLEVELAND
Jim Ingraham, News Herald
1. Jeter
2. Hafner
3. Ortiz
4. Morneau
5. Sizemore
6. Thomas
7. Mauer
8. Dye
9. Guillen
10. Nathan
Sheldon Ocker, Akron Beacon Journal
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Ortiz
4. Santana
5. Verlander
6. Dye
7. Thomas
8. Konerko
9. Guerrero
10. Hafner
DETROIT
Danny Knobler, Booth Newspapers
1. Morneau
2. Thomas
3. Mauer
4. Jeter
5. Ortiz
6. Giambi
7. Santana
8. Guillen
9. Dye
10. Sizemore
John Lowe, Detroit Free Press
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Thomas
4. Ortiz
5. Dye
6. Nathan
7. Santana
8. Mauer
9. Rogers
10. Sizemore
KANSAS CITY
David Boyce, Kansas City Star
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Thomas
4. Dye
5. Santana
6. Ortiz
7. Hafner
8. Guerreo
9. Mauer
10. A. Rodriguez
Bob Dutton, Kansas City Star
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Ortiz
4. Thomas
5. Santana
6. Mauer
7. Dye
8. Cano
9. Tejada
10. Ibanez
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL
Joe Christensen, Minneapolis Star Tribune
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Thomas
4. Ortiz
5. Mauer
6. Dye
7. Hafner
8. Guillen
9. Giambi
10. Santana
Jason Williams, St. Paul Pioneer Press
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Dye
4. Thomas
5. Ortiz
6. Thome
7. Santana
8. Guerrero
9. Hafner
10. Mauer
LOS ANGELES
Matt Hurst, Riverside Press Enterprise
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Mauer
5. Thomas
6. Santana
7. Dye
8. Guillen
9. Guerrero
10. Sizemore
Doug Padilla, L.A. News Group
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Mauer
4. Ortiz
5. Thomas
6. Santana
7. Guillen
8. Dye
9. Guerrero
10. Hafner
OAKLAND
Susan Slusser, San Francisco Chronicle
1. Jeter
2. Thomas
3. Santana
4. Morneau
5. Ortiz
6. Dye
7. Mauer
8. Hafner
9. M. Ramirez
10. Sizemore
Joe Roderick, Contra Costa Times
1. Jeter
2. Thomas
3. Morneau
4. Dye
5. Ortiz
6. Guerrero
7. Thome
8. M. Ramirez
9. Guillen
10. Tejada
SEATTLE
Larry Stone, Seattle Times
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Ortiz
4. Thomas
5. Dye
6. Guerrero
7. Hafner
8. Mauer
9. Giambi
10. Guillen
John Hickey, Seattle Post Intelligencer
1. Morneau
2. Jeter
3. Thomas
4. Ortiz
5. A. Rodriguez
6. Dye
7. Guillen
8. Ibanez
9. Guerrero
10. Sizemore
TEXAS
Kat O'Brien, Fort Worth Star Telegram
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Santana
4. Dye
5. Ortiz
6. Thomas
7. Guerrero
8. Hafner
9. Mauer
10. Matthews
Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News
1. Santana
2. Jeter
3. Morneau
4. Dye
5. Thomas
6. Ortiz
7. Mauer
8. Guerrero
9. Sizemore
10. Young
CCLU,
Well, Howard over Pujols, while debatable, is a choice that's defensible.
However, we kinda had a feeling that Morneau woudld win, b/c those old baseball writers have a big orgasm as soon as they saw his RBIs, which of course, if BS. Morneau wasn't even the best hitter on his team!!! It was Mauer... where else are you going to find this kind of offensive production from a catcher??? Either Jeter or Mauer isn't bad...I would have been happy with either..
Now, this is the 2nd time that Jeter lost out in a MVP race to stupid voting... (Hello Pudge!) But when you think about it, it all works out even steven in the end.... he earned a lot of other accolaids and praise because of writer stupidity (ie. Gold glove... clutch etc.... none of which would happen if he say..played in KC or Cinccy)... so it kinda evens out in a wierd and twisted way.
Take Care,
Wilson
Well, Howard over Pujols, while debatable, is a choice that's defensible.
However, we kinda had a feeling that Morneau woudld win, b/c those old baseball writers have a big orgasm as soon as they saw his RBIs, which of course, if BS. Morneau wasn't even the best hitter on his team!!! It was Mauer... where else are you going to find this kind of offensive production from a catcher??? Either Jeter or Mauer isn't bad...I would have been happy with either..
Now, this is the 2nd time that Jeter lost out in a MVP race to stupid voting... (Hello Pudge!) But when you think about it, it all works out even steven in the end.... he earned a lot of other accolaids and praise because of writer stupidity (ie. Gold glove... clutch etc.... none of which would happen if he say..played in KC or Cinccy)... so it kinda evens out in a wierd and twisted way.
Take Care,
Wilson
Hearing Joe Cowley on Dan Patrick's Show trying to defend his reason for putting Jeter on 6th is such a joke.
He had Pierzynski over Mauer on his vote. Are you [bleeping] kidding me?
He had Pierzynski over Mauer on his vote. Are you [bleeping] kidding me?
如果他拿第一名就太扯了? XD
老實說今年在AL MVP出來以前 包括NL MVP, CYA, ROY和銀棒獎 嚴重的錯誤我認為只有一個(AL 3B銀棒獎 完全的荒謬) 另外就是NL SS銀棒獎(應該給Bill Hall) 其他獎項的得獎者雖然有些我不完全同意 但是都可以接受
跟前幾年相比其實我覺得是相對較好的一年 可惜這些投票者在最後一個獎項上沒能保持住之前的水準
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老實說今年在AL MVP出來以前 包括NL MVP, CYA, ROY和銀棒獎 嚴重的錯誤我認為只有一個(AL 3B銀棒獎 完全的荒謬) 另外就是NL SS銀棒獎(應該給Bill Hall) 其他獎項的得獎者雖然有些我不完全同意 但是都可以接受
跟前幾年相比其實我覺得是相對較好的一年 可惜這些投票者在最後一個獎項上沒能保持住之前的水準
