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Sunday, October 22, 2006

What Happened to Rogers? 

如果我們要在目前的大聯盟 manager 裡面找一個人最擅長擾亂對方選手的心理狀況,那一定是 Tony La Russa。不過今天第二局的事情並不是他發現的,FOX 的轉播小組發現 Rogers 手上有奇怪的髒污痕跡,攝影機 zoom in 了好幾次,然後被 Cards 的球員在 clubhouse 裡面看到,通知了 Tony LaRussa。

即使在一般球季中的比賽,LaRussa 也不會放棄這種機會,更何況是 WS。我不知道 LaRussa 有多擔心對手作弊,不過我想 LaRussa 一定想做到的是擾亂 Rogers 的節奏,讓他季後賽連續未失分局數停下來。截至 WS 這一戰結束,Kenny Rogers 已經連續 24.1 局未失分了,這些場次分別是:

2003 ALDS G3 1.1 IP (as a Min vs. NYY)
2006 ALDS G3 7.2 IP
2006 ALCS G3 7.1 IP
2006 WS G2 8.0 IP

上一次他在季後賽丟分是 10/19/1999 以 Met 身分在 Turner Field,Braves 的主場投球。他在第十一局上來,被 Gerald Williams 打了一隻 leadoff double,然後在 Bret Boone 犧牲觸擊送 Gerald Willaims 上三壘之後連續故意保送了 Chipper Jones 及 Brian Jordon。他在連續八個壞球之後把好球帶給忘掉了,接下來他保送了 Andruw Jones 丟掉了一分以及 NLCS Game 6 和整個 series。他在那次的 NLCS 第二場先發輸球,本來應該是他來先發這一場而不是在第十一局上來救援的,不過由於他前一天也是在延長賽裡面投了兩局,Bobby Valentine 選擇讓 Al Leiter 在休息三天的情況下上來。Leiter 並沒有回應 Valentine 的期許,在第一局下半丟掉五分,連一個出局數都沒有製造出來。

在那之間 Rogers 的季後賽記錄難看到足以列名史上最差的季後賽投手排行榜。
1996 ALDS Game 2: 0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR
1996 ALDS Game 4: 2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR
1996 ALCS Game 4: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR
1996 WS Game 4: 2 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 SO, 1 HR

ALDS Game 2 他是上來當 LOOGY,不過保送了 Will Clark。他那一年對左右打的 splits 是
vs. Right: .271/.347/.389
vs. Left: .209/.326/.318

對於左打壓制力的確較好,只是保送稍微多了一點 (17 BB/110 AB vs. 66 BB/576 AB 面對左打 vs. 面對右打)。在季後賽果然最糟的情況出現。他那一年 179 IP 中被打出 16 支全壘打,季後賽只投了 7 局被打出 2 支。

1999 年他是 Met。
1999 NLDS Game 2: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
1999 NLCS Game 2: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 SO, 2 HR
1999 NLCS Game 5: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR
1999 NLCS Game 6: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR

如前所述,NLCS Game 6 裡面有兩個保送是一出局三壘有人於延長賽時的故意保送,防守方可以直接殺本壘無需觸殺或是試圖製造雙殺,只是 Rogers 沒有給防守球員任何機會。他在 NLCS Game 5 的表現也不錯,除此之外乏善可陳,但是比起 1996 算是好的多了。

2003 他在 Twins,於 ALDS 輸給了 Yankees。在 ALDS 中他只投了 1.1 局沒有失分。然後就是今年。

一個 41 歲的投手,擁有這樣的過去,今年有這麼驚人的表現,這大概不是任何人在季後賽之前可以想像的到的。今天他在被裁判叫去洗手之後仍然投了七局沒有失分,不管他手上的東西是什麼,應該都不是他投的這麼好的原因。他的例子大概只是再度告訴我們不要用小樣本來評估一個球員,不管在一段不短的時間內,表現多麼的一致都沒有用,小樣本的意義本身是有限的。

這大概也是個可以給抨擊 A-Rod 不遺餘力的人一個好好想一想的例子。以這兩個人的天賦、過往在球季賽和季後賽的表現來看,A-Rod 在一場 WS 比賽裡面打出三隻全壘打的機率恐怕不會比 Kenny Rogers 今年 23 局不失分低到哪裡去。


I was watching Game 2 today and began to think about the crafty lefties, Tom Glavin and Jamie Moyer.

How would you rank those 3? As in, if you were a GM making a FA signing this off season, who would you want the most?
I don't want any of them.

Kenny Rogers had best games in his life this postseason. Yes, I think his performance was real, not an act of cheating. However, he's not an ERA 0.00 pitcher, no pitcher ever was and no pitcher will ever be. Johan Santana today or Randy Johnson in his heydays are not that good. Damn, Koufax was never this good in any postseason he pitched.

I expect Rogers to be a similar pitcher next year, if not worse due to his age. He certainly washes away the midname "the worst post-season pitcher in the history" if there're no more controversies regarding the foreign substance on his left hand.

Tom Glavine is aging gracefully, but is aging anyway. He'll earn his 300th win and that's it. I'd like to see him in the Cooperstown, not the Bronx.

Moyer? I'm not even sure if he wants to pitch beyond this year. If he wants to come back, I wish him good luck and also don't want to see him in the pinstripes, at least not the Yankee pinstripes. There's no way he's demanding only a few houndred grands, but I believe the Yankees can get the similar results from a few prospects not named Philip Hughes and spend less than a million bucks on them.

If I have to rank them, I'll rank Moyer the last because his age and the fact that he already declines a lot. Things can turn south for Rogers and Glavine anytime, it's not a smart bet to have any of them on your roster if you have to pay money and draft picks. I'd rank Glavine a little bit higher than Rogers, but it means nothing.

Kenny Rogers still has another year on his contract and the Tigers certainly got their money's worth just for the performance of this year.

Glavine's case is tricky. I don't think the Mets will exercise the club option ($14M for 2007), nor does I think Glavine will exercise his player option ($7.5M). Both sides are likely to find a common ground for Glavine to pick up his 300th win as a Met. It's good publicity for SNY and he's still an above average pitcher, I think the Mets will hold on to him.

Any GM signs Moyer is not doing his job well. He either
1. overpays a declining player.
2. has too poor a farm system to generate equivalent outcomes so he needs a Moyer.
Jamie Moyer has been signed by the Phillies for a 2 year, 10.5 mil contract.
kenny roger今年令人為之驚豔,
Pat Gillick是水手派去進一步降低國聯競技水準的...
Jeez, Moyer was signed? 2 years?

There's a reason the Philies couldn't win anything for a while, the Braves or their market size is not it.

他在03年decline了 player option,

以Clemens 02的身體狀況和表現來看,
他應該執行player option,不然很難在其他地方拿這麼高的薪水,

Hahahaha.... thanks for your thorough response. It was meant to be more of a "what if" fantasy quesiton.

Those 3 would all get destroyed pitching in the AL East... toughest division in baseball.

I totallly agree with you that as a GM, I wouldn't really want any of those 3 lefties...

I would much rather have Liriano, Hamels & Capuano as my 3 lefties......

As for Moyer staying with the Phillies...he is actually a Philadelphia native.... so they probably have some agreement worked out that he would move up into the front office or into the coaching ranks after his contract expires
To Aloha,

Hahaha... Gillick ain't bad... he put together 2 championship teams for us here in Toronto.
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