Friday, September 29, 2006
Another Subway Series? Unlikely
Yankees 和 Mets 都有可能以所屬聯盟最佳戰績進入季後賽，這是自 1956 年以來第一次兩隻來自 New York 的球隊有這樣的表現。當然，那時候是 Yankees 和 Dodgers。
40-50 年代 New York City 可以說是棒球的首都 (Ken Burns 在 Baseball 這套紀錄片裡如是說)，Subway Series 對於這個城市的人來講是家常便飯。自從 Dodgers 和 Giants 因為都市人口結構改變嚴重影響到觀眾入場數，以致於在 1956 球季後搬到西岸後，Subway Series 一時間變成了希罕的東西。在 Mets 成立後他們一直無法填補當年 Dodgers 和 Giants 所留下來的空缺，而 Yankees 雖然大多時候仍是強隊，但比起 40-50 甚至 60 年代初期也不免黯淡許多。直到上個世紀末跨聯盟比賽的設計，才再度讓 Subway Series 復活。雖然這不是 NYC 球迷真正要的，不過也算是個安慰獎。直到 2000 年， Mets 以 NL Wild Card 打進季後賽且一直闖入 WS；Yankees 也一路跌跌撞撞的衝過九月莫名其妙的低潮而設定好另外一個華麗的擂台給紐約市民。
今年在理論上這兩隊應該更有機會碰頭，不過看起來不是這樣子了。
Mets 於日前已經宣佈 Pedro Martinez 可能不會在季後賽上場了。星期三他的先發之後，Will Carroll 對他的狀況是這樣評論的︰
"Sources with the Mets tell me that Martinez was "working on things," but unless getting knocked around was the thing he was working on, I can't see what he accomplished."
當然，Pedro Martinez 沒有需要練習如何被 "knocked around"。缺乏一個健康的 Pedro 對於 Mets 來講是很沈重的打擊，他們的 rotation 並沒有足夠的深度可以承受缺少 Pedro Martinez 的打擊。Baseball Prospectus 的 Nate Silver 最近拿出一個新玩具叫做 quick ERA，希望藉由少數幾個數據來模擬 Pecota 所能做到的事情︰預測季後賽的表現。公式如下︰
QERA =(2.69+K%*(-3.4)+BB%*3.88+GB%*(-0.66))^2
這是一個二階多項式，裡面的變數包括 SO/PA, BB/PA 以及 GB/FB ratio (請注意，這些都是比率，不是 K/9, BB/9)。K% 和 GB% 可以讓 QERA 降低，BB% 會讓 QERA 升高。他在文章裡沒有解釋這個公式用來解釋過去已經發生的事情時效果如何，我們姑且看看，不必太認真。這些參數當然都是拿歷史資料對公式最適化求出來的解，不過就算 QERA 對於季後賽表現是不偏估計 (E(QERA) = Post-Season ERA)，我們也還是沒辦法知道這個估計的 variance 到底有多大。
看看 Mets 和 Yankees 的情況︰
Mets
Glavine 4.26
Martinez 3.25
Hernandez 3.47
Trachsel 5.76
Yankees
1. Wang 4.58
2. Mussina 3.21
3. Johnson 3.81
4. Wright 5.17
Glavine 今年的表現看起來被年齡給趕上了，在球季初的精彩表現後，隨著溫度的上升他的 ERA 也跟著上升。Randolph 在球季末給他比較多的休息，使得他在八、九月的表現比較好看，不過這仍然不是 Glavine。如果 Pedro Martinez 不能上的話，本來應該用 Steve Trachsel 還是 John Maine 的爭論自動消失，因為 Mets 會需要他們兩個人。不過拿 John Maine 跟健康的 Pedro Martinez 比，這裡降級降的很兇。Mets 是否有足夠的 rotation 帶著他們在季後賽往前衝？他們的打線能不能彌補 rotation 的缺點？
另外一邊，Yankees 今天也宣佈 Big Unit 是否能夠在 ALDS 先發還不確定。他星期四檢查時發現 herniated disk 的問題。如果他無法在季後賽上場，Yankees 的 rotation 將是王建民、Moose、Wright 和 Lidle。這情況跟 Mets 差不了多少。
Nate Silver 的 Quick ERA 對於王建民不太看好，最近看到另外一篇文章也對王建民在季後賽的表現不太樂觀。主要的論點都是像他這一類無法三振對手的投手在季後賽表現通常不如 Clemens 這一類的三振型投手。我之前談過我需要更多資料來判斷到底王建民為什麼能用這麼低的三振率來維持目前這樣的好成績，所以這一部份我就不討論了，只是寫在這裡給大家一個參考。
沒有 Pedro Martinez 的 Mets 跟可能會沒有 Randy Johnson 的 Yankees 能不能在 WS 碰頭？雖然他們都有非常好的 lineup，不過投手和防守在季後賽的比重要高於 regular season (請見 Nate Silver 的 9/20/2006 Lies, Damned Lies 專欄或他跟 Dayn Perry 在 Baseball Between Numbers 書中的討論)，這兩隻球隊同時過關的機率大概不會太好。
Comments:
關於倒數第二段提到的,我的想法是低三振率低保送率的投手,BIP%自然高,由於BABIP是打者這邊掌控的程度較大,所以碰上打擊較好的對手時,這類型的投手成績下滑的程度就比三振型的投手更大了.
不過看看今年的AL,晉級季後賽的球隊只有Yankees自己有聯盟頂級的打擊;Tigers和Twins靠的是他們的投手,打擊只有中段水準;A's的打擊幾乎要歸到後段班了.
平均來說,王建民在季後賽會遇到的打者實力,可能甚至不如他季賽時的對手,所以倒也不需要過於悲觀.
不過看看今年的AL,晉級季後賽的球隊只有Yankees自己有聯盟頂級的打擊;Tigers和Twins靠的是他們的投手,打擊只有中段水準;A's的打擊幾乎要歸到後段班了.
平均來說,王建民在季後賽會遇到的打者實力,可能甚至不如他季賽時的對手,所以倒也不需要過於悲觀.
其實其他隊伍的問號也不少，所以至少我們可以確信的說今年的洋基晉級的機會比去年好，即使少了RJ (who blew his game 3 start anyway last year) 洋基各方面的強度其實應該都更勝去年。但anything can happen. 只能說王建民跟Moose能不能出現clutch performance變的非常非常的重要了。
I've read reports that Johan Santana is having some soreness in various areas, and Yankees are notoriously good against big name pitcher anyway. the Santana advantage isn't THAT huge.
the A's is a tricky one, it really depends on what they can get out of Harden, and wether they would start Zito in game 1.
As for the Tigers, they are clearly the heavy underdog in the AL, they have a rotation where the only one that have any playoff experience is a notoriously bad playoff pitcher.
I think other Yankee blogs have quite correctly predicted that the biggest challenge for the Yankees is to get through the ALDS, if they do it, they'll most likely win the whole thing.
而Mets的話我只能說it can go either way, Astros 不晉級的話對他們會有利許多, 但其實美西的兩隊的投手都滿不錯的，尤其其實郭泓志這種power lefty對mets的壓制力很大... 他們的危險可能比洋基大一些，但是in the end, they also have enough bull pen, I think if they can get past the Padres they'll be fine.
Astros 晉級的話就很有趣了，但現在看起來Cardinals的機會還是大不少..而說真的Cardinals 能通過NLDS 我都會很驚訝..他們現在真的是兩人球隊...
I've read reports that Johan Santana is having some soreness in various areas, and Yankees are notoriously good against big name pitcher anyway. the Santana advantage isn't THAT huge.
the A's is a tricky one, it really depends on what they can get out of Harden, and wether they would start Zito in game 1.
As for the Tigers, they are clearly the heavy underdog in the AL, they have a rotation where the only one that have any playoff experience is a notoriously bad playoff pitcher.
I think other Yankee blogs have quite correctly predicted that the biggest challenge for the Yankees is to get through the ALDS, if they do it, they'll most likely win the whole thing.
而Mets的話我只能說it can go either way, Astros 不晉級的話對他們會有利許多, 但其實美西的兩隊的投手都滿不錯的，尤其其實郭泓志這種power lefty對mets的壓制力很大... 他們的危險可能比洋基大一些，但是in the end, they also have enough bull pen, I think if they can get past the Padres they'll be fine.
Astros 晉級的話就很有趣了，但現在看起來Cardinals的機會還是大不少..而說真的Cardinals 能通過NLDS 我都會很驚訝..他們現在真的是兩人球隊...
To Ayukawayen,
你提到的部份在 Baseball Between the Numbers 書中他們考慮到了。事實上他們發現的是對手的打擊率和投手三振率對於季後賽的成功都有正面相關，不過由於這兩個變數彼此也相關，在迴歸分析後他們選擇的變數是 strike out rates。在計量教科書裡我們可以看 redundant variables 的部份。
簡單的說，你的猜想是故事的一部份，而且可能是很大的一部份，不過大概不是全部。
另外根據 Nate Silver 和 Dayn Perry 的研究，進入季後賽的球隊之間的打擊表現差異對於勝負結果影響很小。
Pitching and defense win championships 可能不只是傳統觀念，這句話也有相當的實證支持。
你提到的部份在 Baseball Between the Numbers 書中他們考慮到了。事實上他們發現的是對手的打擊率和投手三振率對於季後賽的成功都有正面相關，不過由於這兩個變數彼此也相關，在迴歸分析後他們選擇的變數是 strike out rates。在計量教科書裡我們可以看 redundant variables 的部份。
簡單的說，你的猜想是故事的一部份，而且可能是很大的一部份，不過大概不是全部。
另外根據 Nate Silver 和 Dayn Perry 的研究，進入季後賽的球隊之間的打擊表現差異對於勝負結果影響很小。
Pitching and defense win championships 可能不只是傳統觀念，這句話也有相當的實證支持。
To Bluedoll,
這裡我們在討論時想的 Big Unit 大概是不同的。我談得是那個有可能投出 dominant outing 的 Big Unit，他今年不穩定，但是仍然偶有佳作。你談得是實際上 Yankees 現在擁有的 Big Unit，的確不比 Jaret Wright 或是 Cory Lidle 可靠多少。如果是最近那個 Big Unit，大概有他沒有他差不了多少。甚至到了 ALCS 或 WS (假設 Yankees 可以走那麼遠)，他也未必幫的上忙。當年他如日中天之時在 LDS 就沒有多大用處，現在這種情況我連 LCS 也不敢說了。
這裡我們在討論時想的 Big Unit 大概是不同的。我談得是那個有可能投出 dominant outing 的 Big Unit，他今年不穩定，但是仍然偶有佳作。你談得是實際上 Yankees 現在擁有的 Big Unit，的確不比 Jaret Wright 或是 Cory Lidle 可靠多少。如果是最近那個 Big Unit，大概有他沒有他差不了多少。甚至到了 ALCS 或 WS (假設 Yankees 可以走那麼遠)，他也未必幫的上忙。當年他如日中天之時在 LDS 就沒有多大用處，現在這種情況我連 LCS 也不敢說了。
To RollingWave,
1. Santana has enough time to rest, if not to heal. If he only got a health concern, not a health problem already, the Yankees might not have enough time to exploit that in the ALDS.
2. Harden already looks good in his last outing. Since the Yanks won't see them in the first round, I don't want to waste my time evaluating their chances. Let me quote Carroll's words here:
"Harden showed great command, plus velocity, and he did it over his full pitch allotment. He's clearly ready for the playoffs, and the only downside is that he's not extended to a normal starter's workload yet."
3. 2005 White Sox didn't have much postseason experience either, and look at where they went. Silver and Perry showed that there's little correlation between postseason experience and success.
4. Mets simply don't have enough pitching, period. Randolph will use Trachsel as his No. 3 starter, go figure.
5. As for the Cards, you can look no further than the 2000 Yankees. The momentum is not going to be carried into the postseason like a sure thing; and it doesn't matter whether you have a good or bad streak before October. This is also in Silver and Perry's article.
1. Santana has enough time to rest, if not to heal. If he only got a health concern, not a health problem already, the Yankees might not have enough time to exploit that in the ALDS.
2. Harden already looks good in his last outing. Since the Yanks won't see them in the first round, I don't want to waste my time evaluating their chances. Let me quote Carroll's words here:
"Harden showed great command, plus velocity, and he did it over his full pitch allotment. He's clearly ready for the playoffs, and the only downside is that he's not extended to a normal starter's workload yet."
3. 2005 White Sox didn't have much postseason experience either, and look at where they went. Silver and Perry showed that there's little correlation between postseason experience and success.
4. Mets simply don't have enough pitching, period. Randolph will use Trachsel as his No. 3 starter, go figure.
5. As for the Cards, you can look no further than the 2000 Yankees. The momentum is not going to be carried into the postseason like a sure thing; and it doesn't matter whether you have a good or bad streak before October. This is also in Silver and Perry's article.
of course i agree that in the playoffs anything can happen, but I still think if i had to take one team to win the whole thing Yankees will still be the favorite.
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