The Pinstriped Morningside Heights

任何一隻球隊陣容中有四十二歲的投手和三十七歲的外野手，都應該要有心理準備這些人的健康可能會出問題。即便他們的更衣櫃上面名條寫的是 Randy Johnson 和 Gary Sheffield 也不能改變這個事實。

今年卅二歲從菜鳥球季就沒有缺席過任何一場比賽的外野手？這個就只能說是意外了。

Matsui 的情況是目前這幾個傷兵裡面最嚴重的，同時也大概是最沒有什麼好討論的。手腕骨折，情況頗嚴重，有可能這個球季報銷，樂觀一點的估計大概也是在球季快要結束前歸陣。Yankees 應該會迅速將他放上 60-day DL 然後看看有什麼選擇可以使用。之前我們在討論誰可以取代 Bubba Crosby 時列出來幾個名字，Yankees 目前的選項也就是這麼幾個。如果以 Crosby 為基準，我們大概看到的會是個 replacement level 的球員，或者比那個水準稍微好一點，因為 Crosby 也應該表現的比現在水準稍微好一點。

去年 Matsui 的成績是 6.4 WARP，今年的 Pecota 預期是 4.8 WARP，以到目前為止的數據外插計算今年應該有的水準大約是 6.8 WARP (這個數字可能太高了一點，但是 WARP3 又稍微低了些)。在一個火熱的開始後，Matsui 冷下來的很快，不過五月他的 OBP 和 SLG 都算是不錯。今年他的 FRAR 出乎意料的好，FRAA 生涯第一次是正的。這種情況是否會維持下去我們不知道，以他的年齡和生涯記錄來看，比較合理的預期大概不會到 6.8 那麼高，期待他複製去年的 6.4 WARP 大概比 Pecota 預期要更接近一些。

換句話說，在接下來 Matsui 整季的守備與打擊由 replacement level 球員取代的情況下，大約相當於 4.5 到 5 勝之間。當然，這種算法只是考慮 Yankees 一隻球隊的情況，由於其他球隊也多少會受到傷兵影響，所以實際戰績上也許不會差到這麼多。

Gary Sheffield 情況不明，目前大家不認為他 15 天就可以從 DL 下來，不過據 Cashman 的說法那也不會是長達兩個月的事情。經驗告訴我們 Cashman 雖然保留很多資訊不透露，但是他說出來的話不會是謊話。所以 Sheffield 不會要到明星賽才會回來，六月應該就會有機會看到他上場，他這個假應該不至於放到他的小孩出生（他老婆懷胎八個月）。

最懸疑的是 Randy Johnson 的情況。Yankees 對他的肩膀做過 MRI，結果是沒有問題的。我們知道他的膝蓋有長期性的問題，Will Carroll 在昨天的 UTK 專欄談了他的狀況：

The key here is the knee. Johnson isn't complaining about it, but it seems that Johnson is either due for a refill on his Synvisc, or the treatment is no longer effective enough to keep him effective. He's too crafty and talented to write off without another couple of starts, but you don't have to be an expert to see when Johnson's on. You probably saw it last night in your own way, but I'll give you an easy key--watch the front of his jersey. When it pops out hard, as shown on the cover of "Saving The Pitcher," Johnson is okay. Surprisingly, the gloveside shoulder seems to be okay, despite previously reported problems. The Yankees went ahead and had an MRI on Johnson's pitching shoulder yesterday to make sure everything was fine, meaning something was bothering him physically. Johnson says that he wants to "put his best foot forward" in his next outing. He'll need to make sure that's done in combination with a solid knee, good hip turn, and proper energy transfer.

引述不宜過長，所以我只引了他文中對 Randy Johnson 討論的兩段文字的第二段。那一篇文章應該是免費的，有興趣的人可以點取上面的連結自己看。

John Flaherty 也有他的看法，New York Times 的 Tyler Kepner 在 5/12 的 "Mechanics Bedevil Sturtze Out of Pen" 裡面引述他的說法：

Flaherty said Johnson's right arm, the lead one in his delivery, is pivotal to the angle of his left arm. When he caught Johnson, he would tell him he needed to see space between his lead elbow and the side of his body; if the lead elbow was tucked in too closely, the throwing elbow would drop.

"It's the same stuff as last year, but it's kind of gone to another level now, where you can tell he's lost," Flaherty said.

"Last year when he didn't locate, he was missing by a little," Flaherty said. "The other night he was missing by a lot. I just think he's probably thinking about a lot of different things and feels kind of lost right now. You hope it's the bottom of the barrel and he'll be able to re-group."

Flaherty said it would be important for Johnson to throw off a mound between starts to internalize the adjustments he needs to make. Johnson, who sometimes did not throw between starts last season, is scheduled to throw in the bullpen today.

照 Flaherty 的說法這仍然只是 mechanics 的問題，健康因素影響不大。

如果 Yankees 少了 Matsui，然後損失 Sheffield 在 DL 上面一個月，也許他們還有辦法打進季後賽。但若再加上 Johnson 維持現在的沒有效率甚或上了 DL，這樣的損失就不太容易挽回了。今年 Yankees 球迷還有沒有十月的比賽可以看，在 Matsui 受傷後 Randy Johnson 將扮演很重要的角色。除非再有像去年的 Chacon、Small、王建民這樣的球員不知從哪裡跑出來，我不認為 Yankees 能夠承擔 Matsui + Johnson 的損失。