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Friday, March 24, 2006

10 Days From the Opening Day 

最近忙碌程度遠超過我的想像,所以 blog 更新的速度也低於我的期望。

之前做了 Yankees 的 starting lineup 及 rotation 的 Pecota 預期討論,本來應該接下來做 bullpen 及 bench,不過在看完前兩者之後發現其實沒有什麼需要。簡單的說,Yankees 今年的火力應該比去年要好,但是不管媒體說他們有幾個人競爭先發投手的位子,他們還少一個人。

在上次 post 到這次的十天左右時間,Pavano 幾乎確定開季上 DL,Aaron Small 也是。Wright 前幾天也有問題,不過他的背傷大概只夠讓他進度延後,在開幕時確定被丟進 bullpen 而已,上 DL 可能未必。


Randy Johnson
Mike Mussina
Chien-Ming Wang
Shawn Chacon

Mariano Rivera
Kyle Farnsworth
Mike Myers
Ron Villone
Tanyon Sturtze
Jaret Wright

由於這樣只有 10 個人,Scott Proctor 有可能進入開幕日的 25-man roster。我們看看野手再來判斷是否會有其他投手進入名單。

Jorge Posada
Kelly Stinnett

Jason Giambi
Robinson Cano
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Miguel Cairo
Andy Phillips

Hideki Matsui
Johnny Damon
Gary Sheffield
Bernie Williams
Bubba Crosby

這裡一共是 13 個人。

Torre 可以再帶一個投手或是一個野手。在野手部份,目前的選擇是 Felix Escalona 或是 Kevin Reese,對於 Yankees 都沒有什麼幫助。現在 Yankees 在一壘有 Giambi 和 Phillips 兩個人,而 Miguel Cairo 可以守二壘、三壘和游擊,同時只要三壘有人,A-Rod 當然可以守游擊。所以 Yankees 沒有必要多放一個沒有火力的內野手,換句話說,我們應該不需要看 Escalona 這個 27 歲還沒有累積到250 AB 的內野手了。Kevin Reese 比 Escalona 還要大一歲又一天,只有一個大聯盟打數,他也不太可能是 Yankees 在找的人。

在投手方面,被 Torre 長期遺忘的 Colter Bean 應該是最好的選擇。雖然我從來不喜歡在 roster 裡放 12 個投手的點子,但是 Colter Bean 應該得到一個機會。等到 Pavano、Dotel、Small 歸隊後,就算 Proctor 被丟掉,也許連 Sturtze 一起被 release 掉,投手人數還是太多了。話又說回來,如果 Bean 成為第 12 個投手,他也只會在板凳上跟 Joe Kerrigan 聊天聊到雙方祖母的 middle name 都談得一清二楚,上場投球大概不太可能。我還是相信 Colter Bean 可能有個平均水準的大聯盟生涯,但是那應該不會在 Yankees。

除了這些選擇以外,Yankees 還有一些 NRI 未嘗沒有機會。Scott Erickson、J.B. Cox 以及老朋友 Mendoza,可是他們的用處不會比 Colter Bean 好到哪裡去。所以球季還沒有開始,Yankees 大概就是用 24 個打別人 25 個的局面了。好在大部分的球隊就算是第 25 人比 Yankees 的好,但是他們最前面十個人比 Yankees 差,所以這個缺點不算要命。

Steven Goldman 在他的 blog 裡面提到 Hee Seop Choi 可能會是適合的第 25 人。據說 Dodgers 可能會把他 release 掉,而 Yankees 的確可以用一個有 power 的左打。

以前的 Yankees 大概不會對 Hee Seop Choi 動腦筋,Cashman 真正當家作主的話,也許有點機會。

可以忘記 Colter Bean,他今個在 off-season 動了右膝手術,整個春訓都在做復健,開季牛棚剩下那個位置 Proctor 是十拿九穩的。

另外給 Kevin Thompson 一個機會,他當球隊的4th(5th)OF 比 Crosby 好很多很多。
Choi被Dogers放到waiver上,然後Red Sox claim走了.........
Colter Bean 可以上場而且也已經上場過了。他在 3/23 對 Astros 那場接 Proctor 投了一局,1 K 沒有安打、保送,沒有失分。不過可以忘記這一點我同意,除了 Steven Goldman 外沒有任何媒體注意到他出賽了,而 Torre 是不會給他機會的。不知道他怎麼想,我看得都替他沮喪起來了。

Nice pick by the Sox.

Kevin Thompson 的棒子也許比 Bubba Crosby 好一些,不過從手上的資料看來他似乎不適合守中外野。Damon 過去沒有上 DL 不代表今年不會。讓 Matsui、Bernie 或 Thompson 在 Yankee Stadium 的中外野散步可能太歡樂了一點。
Kevin Thompson 從02年開始,每年都有30次以上的SB,在下覺得他的功用至少會比Kevin Reese好的多,所以我對你文章中提到Reese而不是Thompson感到疑問。Thompson至少速度和年紀會比Crosby和Reese好。


MLB will investigate Bonds' steroid use.


Do you still think Bonds is innocent or still believe in his claim of unintentional steroid use?

If so, you may change your mind after reading "Game of Shadows".
When did I say Bonds was innocent? Either you mistake me to someone else or you've got serious problem with you reading comprehension.

I've said that there's no hard evidence on the relation between a player's performance and his usage of illegal performance enhancing drugs (IPED), which isn't so surprising. People do useless things for generations. For example, baseball players use corked bats which was probably a useless practice. Some physics professors have done experiments on that and found there's no clear effect. People went to temples to wish for good luck on exam. Did you see that's working?

I probably also said Bonds never got caught in the formal testing, which is true.

Did I say he was innocent? Here is the links to some of my old posts:


There're others, but I think these two can show clearly that I believe Bonds was on drugs. What I don't know/believe is how much of Bonds' achievements were inflated by those IPED, if at all.

At this end I'm open-minded, any good research can convince me in either direction. What I'm opposed to is to jump the gun to something people don't know for sure. If you are going to play the blame game, you have to be certain about what you are accusing of.

I don't think we have enough knowledge about steroids using last year, and I still don't think we have enough information we need now.
Ha, you did claim there's no hard evidence to accuse Bonds for using steroid at beginning, before you kind of changed your words on this blog. Anyway, like whether steroids inhanced Bonds' performance or not, that's not the point of the discussion, the point is Bonds and others violated MLB rules.

The relation between steroids and performance is still debatable, however this's not the focus of this investigation. MLB is more interested in whether Bonds and others used steroid. Selig can penalize Bonds even if there's no hard evidence of steroid helping Bonds' performance in last few seasons, as long as it's proved that Bonds used steroids and lied to grand jury or he's accused for the tax fraud.
I said whatever can be backed up by evidence. Maybe not as rigorous as I would like, but I try as hard as I can.

When people said Bonds must have used steroids because he looked like one and he also got amazing numbers which yelled loud "steroids user", I don't see eye to eye to those opinions.

The rule is: If you want to challenge one's integrity and throw his career achievement into the drain, you must be sure.

His big head and big numbers along with his big ego do not mean he used drugs. When people condemn him before any hard evidence was gathered, I surely disagree. I'm not sure how loud I ever spoke up because I was never a Bonds fan and never will, but I know I would never take that popular side in this blame game.

My attitude toward this thing hasn't changed at all.
You haven't read the book. Read it and see how it affects your view on Bonds.

Don't need to focus on the relation between steroids and his performance, focus on how Bonds violated rules in baseball and real life.
I don't think I will read that book.

I didn't like Bonds then and I don't like him now. From the few lines you dropped and all those media exposure, I don't think I will like him after reading the book.

If the whole point comes to like or dislike Bonds, there's no reason for me to read the book. I'll get better usage of my time by reading Zimbalist's new book.
I think people like or dislike something or someone with their own reasons, sometimes there's no reason at all. However, on Bonds' issue, the focus is more on whether he's deserved penalties from MLB or not.

Bonds shouldn't be penalized by using steroids alone. He shouldn't be penalized by how steroids helped his performance either. But if he indeed lied to grand jury or his tax faud is prosecuted, he will probably be penalized.

When a single seaon homerun record holder who will possibly become the all-time homerun king gets penalized by MLB office, which may affect his Hall of Fame eligibility like Pete Rose, it'd certainly draw concerns from MLB fans.

Won't it be ironic that both the all-time hit record holder and all-time homerun record holder are not allowed to HOF?
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