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Saturday, October 23, 2004


A Few Words Before the World Series 


沒有足夠的時間、知識和興趣來詳細的做對戰雙方的實力分析,簡單寫一寫。

我不知道 Francona 為什麼這樣安排 rotation。Red Sox 第三好的先發投手是 Arroyo,他在 ALCS 那次先發其實不能代表什麼,因為在因雨延賽一天後先發投手有什麼樣的表現都不讓人意外。Wakefield 第一戰先發也是很大的賭博,因為如果中間不調整先發順序,Red Sox 就要先發第四好的先發投手兩次。Curt Schilling 的腳踝在 ALCS Game 6 前用簡易手術暫時固定好韌帶並不代表已經修復好了,球季結束後他還是要動手術。換句話說,Schilling 仍然有可能表現的跟 ALCS Game 1 一樣。我個人看法是拿 Wakefield 或是 Lowe 做緊急先發或中繼應該比 Arroyo 適合,這是從先發戰力和投手特性綜合來看。BP 的 Dayn Perry 認為比較好的順序是
Martinez
Schilling
Arroyo
Wakefield
Martinez
Schilling
Arroyo
在 162 場球賽的球季中大概跟目前的 rotation 差距是 5 勝左右。

不過 Wakefield 先發 WS 第一場是個很好的故事。Torre 在星期四的記者招待會上特別提到 Wakefield,他說:

"It's sad. But on the other side of the coin, there's a guy named Tim Wakefield going to the World Series after what he had to walk off the field with last year. So there are two sides to this story."

Wakefield 也回應了 Torre 的話,他說:

"It means a lot that Joe would actually mention my name in his interview when they were packing up going home," Wakefield said. "I have a lot of respect for that man over there. I've played against him for a long time and watched him win a lot of championships over there. And for him to say something that nice about me really shows how passionate he is for not only the game, but for other players on other teams."

Two classic baseball men.

St. Louis 的投手健康情形並不樂觀,Carpenter 仍然沒有進入 WS roster,Kline 也換成了 Al Reyes。在 matchup 上 Tony LaRussa 少了一個左投可以用,這也許是球迷的福氣,比賽可以因此少換一個投手快一點結束。

Red Sox 實力在 St. Louis 之上,他們的問號在於 Schilling 以及 Wakefield 能否各提供兩場 quality starts。如果有一個人出狀況還有 Arroyo 接上來,兩個人出狀況就麻煩了。比賽到了後段 Francona 手頭上可以變出來的花樣沒有 LaRussa 多,所以先發投手必須要表現的比較好。Red Sox 的確有比較好的先發投手,不過由於 Schilling、Wakefield 和 Lowe 今年的健康或表現有問號,在賽前看這個 series 還不至於成為一面倒。如果 Red Sox 先發投手能出的錯都出錯,本來應該向他們一面倒的賽局也可以反過來向 St. Louis 一面倒。

不過棒球也就是這樣才有意思。

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