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Saturday, January 31, 2004


Who's going to field the hot corner? 


最近幾天專欄作家們最喜歡的話題就是為 Yankees 找新的三壘手。由於市場上實在沒有像樣的人選,所以各種小道消息及謠言滿天飛。昨天 Chicago Tribune 有一篇由 Phil Rogers 執筆的 “Yankee’s bad luck could be Sox boon”,提到了一些交易『機會』。

『機會』1: Jose Valentin 去 Yankees 換小聯盟球員,他列出來的名單有 Bubba Crosby、Ramon Ramirez、Jorge DePaula 和 Scott Proctor。而 White Sox 把 Juan Uribe 調上來。
『機會』2: 這個很花式,是個三方交易。Jose Valentin 和 Paul Konerko 去 Anaheim,Troy Glaus 去 Yankees,Jarrod Washburn 和 Darin Erstad 去 White Sox,然後 Yankees再送錢和小聯盟球員讓大家都高興。

看完的感覺是:Holy Cow! What is this guy drinking? 大概 White Sox 今年冬天事情實在太少,記者不想讓老闆發現他幾個月沒事情做,胡扯也要扯出版面來。

Rob Neyer 在前天用了一個專欄來談 Yankees 去哪裡找三壘手這件事情後,昨天的專欄裡又花了一半的空間來討論。Joe Sheehan 也在 Prospectus Today 裡面再談了一次,我已經搞不清楚這是不是第三次了。下面是 Baseball Prospectus 的 2004 Pecota 預測成績,我把一眾相關人等的 EqBA/EqOBP/EqSLG (解釋請見文末) 列在下面。不要問我這些人成為 Yankee 的機會如何或是怎麼可能列名在這裡,現在就算是 Brian Cashman 恐怕都不知道。

Player: EqBA/EqOBP/EqSLG

Tony Batista: .254/.306/.446
Mark Bellhorn: .243/.349/.429
Adrian Beltre: .269/.319/.461
Miguel Cairo: .268/.323/.415
Vinny Castilla: .252/.297/.418
Jeff Cirillo: .256/.326/.359
Wes Helms: .252/.317/.442
Drew Henson: .239/.301/.425
Jose Hernandez: .235/.304/.395
Tyler Houston: .256/.307/.394
Brian Myrow: .246/.349/.425
Chris Stynes: .254/.319/.393
Jose Valentin: .252/.334/.469
Robin Ventura: .246/.356/.440
Enrique Wilson: .243/.294/.364
Todd Zeile: .237/.319/.360

Aaron Boone: .272/.333/.453

Todd Zeile 對於 Yankees 頗多怨懟之詞 (在連結文章最後面)。他的名字姑且列在這裡,讓大家瞧瞧不只他對 Yankees 沒興趣,Yankees 也不該對他有興趣。Jeff Cirillo 寧願在西岸當板凳,也不願意到東岸來先發。事實上,除非 Yankees 守備時要在三壘只放個 Aaron Boone 的 bobble head doll,同時在打擊時換放個等身大的紙人像在打擊區,我也不希望看到 Jeff Cirillo 穿上 pinstripe 制服。

EqBA, EqOBP, and EqSLG
EqBA, EqOBP, EqSLG and EqMLVR are calibrated to an ideal major league with the following characteristics:
EqBA = .270
EqOBP = .340
EqSLG = .440
Note that these levels of performance are slightly higher than 2002 league averages.

While a major league hitter's equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter's equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.

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